The US Election Will Likely Decide Ukraine’s Fate. Here’s What Voters Think

Since the start of Putin’s full-scale invasion, the U.S. has been the biggest contributor of military aid for Kyiv, with Congress voting through five bills worth a combined $175 billion.

However, Washington’s backing for Kyiv has been a sticking point for Republican candidate Trump, who opposes continued aid for Ukraine and has criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for not doing a deal to end the fighting.

Meanwhile, Democratic Party contender Harris told CBS News 60 Minutes on October 7 that if elected, Ukraine would need to be part of any U.S. negotiation to end the conflict and has suggested that she would continue President Joe Biden’s support for Kyiv.

“Without American voters knowing it, every U.S. election since 2012 has been relevant to the future of Ukraine,” said Philip van Scheltinga, Redfield’s director of research, “with Harris and Trump voters viewing how the U.S. should approach the war in Ukraine differently, this election will be no different.”

This article is part of Newsweek‘s tracker polling, where Americans have been asked questions on topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.

This data is based on polling conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. Altogether, 19 polls were conducted, asking cumulatively 34,800 eligible voters about the key issues of the 2024 election.

More Trump voters oppose U.S. support

Redfield found that the proportion of likely Harris voters who wanted the U.S. to keep its support until Ukraine wins increased from 40 percent in July to 53 percent in the final poll on October 6.

Meanwhile, 40 percent of Trump supporters said in October that Washington should “reconsider” its level of support. The latest survey also found that 26 percent of likely Trump voters believed U.S. support should stop now, 10 percentage points higher than the 16 percent of all voters who held that view.

“The candidates have been consistent in their rhetoric about Ukraine,” said Robert Orttung, research professor of international affairs at the George Washington University.

“Harris strongly supports Ukraine and the administration’s efforts to ensure that Russia does not win there,” he told Newsweek.

“Trump and JD Vance have made clear their lack of enthusiasm for the Ukraine effort and indicated that they would settle the war on Putin’s terms,” Orttung said, “most Americans understand the stakes here, in particular that a Ukrainian defeat would pose a real threat to Europe and American interests on that continent.”

“Americans’ views on international conflict and war vary according to a number of variables including partisan identification, race, gender, ethnicity, and generation,” said Dan Caldwell, professor of political science emeritus at Pepperdine University, California.

“Millennials and Gen Z members are less likely to support sending economic and military aid to Ukraine than the Silent and Baby Boomer generations,” he told Newsweek. “That said, political orientation is the strongest predictor of attitudes toward Ukraine and this is starkly evident in the positions of each presidential candidate.”

However, the surveys also found that around one-third of the overall American electorate believe that Washington’s backing for Ukraine should remain until Vladimir Putin is defeated—a level of voter support that has not shifted much for over a year.

Among all respondents on October 6, 34 percent agreed the U.S. continue with its support for Kyiv “until Ukraine wins the war,” a slight increase from 31 percent in September.

Meanwhile, support among all voters for U.S. backing of Ukraine peaked at 39 percent in March but has remained within the range of 31 percent to 35 percent over the 16 months that Redfield carried out the polling.

One-third want U.S. to maintain support

“Around a third say maintain support until Ukraine wins, a third say reconsider as the war goes on, and around 15 percent think the U.S. should stop its support now,” said van Scheltinga. He added men were more supportive of Ukraine (40 percent) than women (29 percent) while a plurality (43 percent) of baby boomers held that view.

The most recent poll in October showed that 16 percent of all respondents wanted U.S. support to stop immediately. The range over the 16 months of polling has been between 14 and 17 percent.

Is the war vital to U.S. interests?

Americans were also asked in the poll whether they believe that the defense of Ukraine “is vital to the interests of the United States.”

Around 45 percent of respondents have consistently agreed with the statement while between 15 percent and 20 percent have consistently disagreed. Among likely Harris voters, 66 percent agree with the statement while only 34 percent of likely Trump voters support the idea, van Scheltinga said.

In the previous three U.S. elections voters were largely unaware of how much their vote would matter to the distant country. “Many American voters this time are cognizant of what is at stake, and some may therefore vote accordingly.”